Bitcoin – Why Coinbase warns BTC could fall to $75K amid macro risks
Coinbase is cautiously optimistic about Bitcoin’s [$BTC] near-term, flagging that the macro headwind could drag the crypto asset below $80K.
In its weekly market review, Coinbase Senior Quantitative Strategist Colin Basco flagged sticky inflation and an 80% chance of a December Fed rate hike.
Basco said Bitcoin could still defend the $80K-$82K zone as support since it is a confluence of the 50-day Moving Average and ETF cost basis. At the same time, he warned,
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However, if this area fails, then we view $73-75K as the next area of support.
But Bitcoin’s challenges go beyond just inflation and macro fears.
Mid-term Bitcoin challenges
According to Coinbase, Bitcoin treasury demand has faded in H2 2026, leaving U.S. spot ETFs to do the heavy lifting.
Source: Coinbase
But even the ETFs have seen significant fluctuations. On the 23rd of October, the complex saw $635 million in net outflows, marking one of the largest single-day outflows in H2 2026. The risk-off move rhymed with ongoing speculation that the U.S.-Iran escalations may be renewed at any time.
Similarly, crypto market liquidity, as tracked by stablecoin supply change, is down by nearly $13 billion from its May peak. The Coinbase premium has also stayed negative in October, Coinbase’s Basco warned.
In other words, crypto-native liquidity is not there, and U.S. retail investors, outside ETF buyers, are yet to come back in large numbers. Simply put, there is little buying pressure for $BTC, and this was illustrated by the negative apparent demand.
Source: CryptoQuant
Add the macro (next week’s Fed rate decision) and geopolitical pressure (US-Iran tensions) to the fragile setup, and the $80K level increasingly seems at risk.
Bitcoin market positioning in Q4
Besides, Coinbase noted that there was a heavy supply cluster of over 2.1M $BTC sitting between $87.5K and $91.7K. This meant the zone could act as a roadblock to any reversal attempts.
In the Options market, institutions were actively hedging against downside risk scenarios. This was illustrated by the 25-Delta Skew surging from 5% to 15% for the 1-day and 1-week tenors. It meant increased demand for downside protection or put buying, with $75K and $73K as the key levels of interest.
Furthermore, there was short-term fear ahead of the Fed rate decision and renewed U.S.-Iran tensions, which dragged the $BTC price near $80K as of writing.
Source: Laevitas
It’s worth pointing out that in the past three months, the 25-Delta Skew only made a slight uptick from 6% to 10%. It implied a long-term calm, suggesting that institutional players viewed the macro and geopolitical fears as short-term rather than a prolonged negative impact.
Final Summary
- Crypto liquidity has declined by nearly $13 billion since May, and treasury firms’ demand has faded.
- Coinbase warned that macro headwinds and the fragile demand setup could drag $BTC below $80K.
