Why Did Bitcoin’s Price Fall? Why Can’t It Recover? Here Are the Opinions
Despite its recent recovery, Bitcoin ($BTC) has failed to sustainably remain above the $80,000 level. The on-chain data analytics platform CryptoQuant highlighted two key indicators explaining why Bitcoin’s price increases haven’t been sustainable.
Bitcoin briefly rose above $81,000 on November 4th but subsequently fell back to around $75,000. According to CryptoQuant, the fundamental problem behind this movement is the lack of strong and sustainable spot buying demand to support further increases.
Approximately $290 million worth of short positions were liquidated during the recent rally. However, the buying pressure triggered by these liquidations does not necessarily mean that new investors have entered the market in large numbers.
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Indeed, spot market data also reveals weak demand. The 30-day average net spot volume delta on Binance is approximately minus $28 million, while on Coinbase it is minus $9.4 million.
However, short-term Bitcoin investors transferred approximately 32,695 $BTC to cryptocurrency exchanges on November 6th while in a loss position. While these transfers don’t prove direct selling, they point to potential selling pressure on the market.
CryptoQuant: Institutional Demand and Spot Purchases Weak in Bitcoin!
CryptoQuant’s assessment also highlighted the weakness in demand from US-based institutional investors.
According to Farside Investors data, there was a net outflow of $411.9 million from spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US on November 6th. Approximately $403 million of this outflow originated from BlackRock’s IBIT fund.
On the other hand, the approximately 4.9% contraction in stablecoin supply over the last 30 days is also considered another signal of weakening liquidity ready to flow into the cryptocurrency market.
CryptoQuant points out that two specific on-chain indicators should be focused on to understand the current state of Bitcoin.
The first of these, Apparent Demand Growth, measures how much $BTC the market has absorbed by taking into account the changes in the supply of new Bitcoin and previously released coins.
The fact that the indicator is showing weakness in its one-year data while the 30-day values remain in negative territory suggests that the recoveries in Bitcoin price are not yet supported by a sustained increase in demand.
The second important indicator is the Coinbase Premium Index. This indicator, which measures the difference between Bitcoin prices on Coinbase and Binance, is used to assess the relative buying appetite of investors, especially those based in the US.
The Coinbase Premium Index, which frequently traded in positive territory during the bull run in 2025, remained in negative territory for much of 2026.
Even during Bitcoin’s recoveries in August and September, the indicator remained predominantly negative, suggesting that US-originated spot buying pressure had not strengthened sufficiently.
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What Conditions Are Necessary for a Sustained Rally in Bitcoin?
According to CryptoQuant’s analysis, there may be an accumulation of Bitcoin in some large wallets. However, transfers to exchanges or large wallet movements alone do not prove that new purchases are taking place.
The analysis emphasized that simply liquidating short positions is not enough for Bitcoin to enter a sustainable upward trend.
Instead, a recovery in visible demand growth over the past 30 days, a sustained positive turn in the Coinbase Premium Index, and a resumption of net money inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs are needed.
*This is not investment advice.
