Bitcoin’s Eyes on the US: Will it Rise or Fall? Analysts Offer Differing Assessments!
The Binance hack and the US midterm elections remain two of the most talked-about topics in the cryptocurrency market in recent days.
At this point, with the US midterm elections resulting in a victory for the Democrats, who had lost the presidency and a majority in both houses of Congress to the Republicans in the 2024 presidential election, this time emerged from the polls with a significant success, once again shifting the political balance.
While opinions differ on the impact of a Democratic victory on Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market, the latest assessment comes from CoinShares Research Head James Butterfill.
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James Butterfill stated that Bitcoin could recover as uncertainty surrounding the US midterm elections decreases.
How Could Bitcoin Be Affected?
A CoinShares executive stated that a Democratic majority in both the House of Representatives and the Senate in the US midterm elections was largely priced into the market. Butterfill noted that, therefore, the outcome would not necessarily lead to further declines.
According to Butterfill, the removal of uncertainty brought about by the elections could pave the way for a relief rally in Bitcoin, rather than a new wave of selling.
Butterfill, on the other hand, pointed out that the election results could slow down regulations for the cryptocurrency sector. He specifically stated that it could make it more difficult for the Clarity Act, which is expected to bring comprehensive regulations to the crypto market, to pass through Congress. He added that potential investigations into Trump-linked businesses would also be negative for the sector.
Butterfill concluded by stating that interest rates, dollar liquidity, and inflows into ETFs are more influential in determining Bitcoin’s direction than election results.
Bitcoin Faces Continued Downward Risk!
A CryptoQuant analyst, in their latest assessment, stated that the strength of the Bitcoin market cycle is weakening and that current indicators have not yet confirmed the formation of a lasting bottom.
According to the analyst, the 30-day moving average of the Bitcoin Cycle Extremes Index has fallen to 15.8 percent. This index level indicates slight pressure on the market.
At this point, according to the analyst, historically, during Bitcoin’s 2021 peak and the 2024-2025 rally, the index rose as market volatility and trading activity increased. However, indicators similar to the strong market movements seen in 2021 and 2024-2025 have not yet emerged. The analyst emphasized that neither the index nor other indicators suggest that selling pressure has ended. The analyst also warned that sideways movement could be prolonged or a new decline could occur before a sustained recovery in Bitcoin.
*This is not investment advice.
