Bitcoin nears a ‘thinly traded pocket’ – Is $64K next for BTC?
The equities volume on Hyperliquid has overtaken the Bitcoin [$BTC] volume once again, Glassnode revealed in a post on X.
Source: Glassnode
Crypto-native traders were chasing the stock market dip. The last time the trading volume ratio climbed to such highs was in August, before the bullish $BTC rally from $63k to $87k.
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It was appealing to consider that another such rebound was around the corner. However, the past three trading days saw Bitcoin spot ETF outflows of $1.043 billion.
Sentiment simply does not support a recovery. At least, not yet.
Market conditions show cooling and short-term sensitivity
Source: Glassnode
The STH to LTH supply ratio was above the upper band and headed higher compared to last week. This meant short-term holders accounted for a greater share of the Bitcoin supply.
In turn, it indicated a market more sensitive to short-term price moves, as short-term holder coins tend to carry thin profits and tend to be moved first under stress.
Source: Glassnode
Glassnode’s Market Pulse report also showed a drop in the percentage of supply in profit. The profitable supply was shrinking, but it has not crossed below the lower band.
Therefore, the market was still in a cooling phase, not capitulation. Moreover, fewer holders were sitting on profits that could tempt them to sell, which should ease the profit-taking pressure.
$BTC in a “thinly traded pocket,” warns analyst
Source: Axel Adler Jr. Insights
The Coinbase Premium was negative even when the rally began in August. Its -0.135% reading now meant Bitcoin was cheaper on Coinbase than it was on Binance. The discount had been wider toward the end of October as selling pressure ramped up.
This is considered a signal that U.S.-based investor interest in $BTC was low.
Source: Axel Adler Jr. Insights
The net taker buy-sell imbalance was at -13,142 $BTC in the futures market on the 9th of November, reported crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr. The futures imbalance had been at -75,000 on the 5th of November and has contracted since then.
Even so, the overall market regime has shifted away from the bullish signals it displayed a few short weeks ago. Bitcoin was above the 200-day Moving Average at $73,193, but not by much.
The imminent threat was the $64k-$74k pocket. In August, $BTC prices had ripped through this area, making it a thinly traded pocket. It could offer little resistance on the way down, too.
Final Summary
- The net taker buy-sell imbalance had contracted, and the percent supply in profit signaled the market was in a cooling phase, not capitulation.
- The thin pocket from $64k-$74k was a threat to the bulls. It had offered no resistance during the August squeeze, and might behave similarly on the way down.
